Since the start of 2023, state legislatures across the country have introduced dozens of anti-trans bills to restrict medical transition care for transgender youth and bar transgender girls from participating in youth sports.  This wave of anti-transgender legislation continues a recent trend of increasing hostility toward transgender rights in Republican legislatures. Does this flurry of legislative activity actually reflect strong public opposition to transgender rights? How do Americans view policies related to transgender rights?

Recent national surveys suggest that there is little consensus among Americans on trans issues and that opinion tends to be quite fluid. We recently examined how public opinion on transgender rights has changed since the issue gained prominence in 2014. We found that general feelings toward transgender people have become warmer over time and that support for policies related to civil rights has increased to constitute large majorities. Consistent with these findings, in an August 2022 national survey, 83% of respondents believe that transgender people deserve the same rights as other Americans. The demographic characteristics of this panel closely resembled that of the United States population on several important traits, including gender, race, education level, and age. Similarly large majorities reported agreeing with laws to protect transgender children from bullying and allowing transgender people to serve openly in the military. In addition, 61% of American disagree that businesses should be able to refuse services to transgender people based on their religious beliefs.

Notes: Data from a national, demographically representative survey of 1.493 adults fielded August 3-29, 2022.

Anti-Trans Rhetoric Influences Public Opinion

At the same time, the public remains divided on policies that have received more attention in the political arena. In the last several years, Republican lawmakers have instigated anti-trans campaigns against gender-affirming medical care and access to public accommodations in the form of “bathroom bills.” Anti-trans rhetoric, particularly that which aims to incite disgust against trans bodies, seems to influence public opinion. Policies restricting bathroom access, and medical transition care for transgender youth garnered plurality support in recent years with many people undecided or unwilling to take a clear position.

Notes: Data from a national, demographically representative survey of 1.493 adults fielded August 3-29, 2022.

On the issue of sports participation, the public is also divided, though there is a majority in favor restricting transgender girls’ participation in sports.  Interestingly, the framing of the question about banning or allowing participation does seem to affect responses.  At least 55% favor a ban while 61% oppose allowing transgender girls to participate. This suggests that many people believe that transgender girls should not participate in K-12 sports, but significantly fewer support the government imposing a ban on participation.  This likely reflects people’s concerns about government restrictions more generally, and perhaps an openness to case-by-case determination of eligibility for K-12 sports depending on perceived competitive fairness of each situation.

Notes: Data from a national, demographically representative survey of 1.493 adults fielded August 3-29, 2022.

This variation across issue areas, and question wording, suggests that different transgender related policies may invoke different sets of values and considerations among people as they form opinions.  Highly supported issues related to general civil rights, such as nondiscrimination policies, bullying protections, and military service, seem to tap concerns about equality and individual rights. Meanwhile, less supported issues that are more body-centric seem to tap other considerations, such as competitive fairness and moral traditionalism.

From Personality to Party

Public opinion on transgender rights not only varies across issue areas though. The ways in which people form their attitudes has changed over time. Our study found that in 2015, many Americans were still relatively unfamiliar with transgender issues and many elites, such as party and religious leaders, had yet to send clear and consistent cues about them. As such, the factors that significantly shaped opinions were rooted in people’s personality traits, values, and personal experiences. For example, people with authoritarian personalities, who value obedience and deference to authority figures, as well as those who hold more traditional moral values and are less tolerant of cultural change tend to hold negative attitudes toward transgender people and transgender rights. In addition, people that know someone who is transgender, particularly a close friend or family member, tend to have more positive attitudes. Partisanship and religiosity, meanwhile, did not show consistent impacts on these attitudes.

By 2021, however, party identity and religiosity became a much more significant factors shaping attitudes, especially on prominent issues like policies regulating public bathroom access. As seen in the figures below, partisan patterns are evident in the 2022 survey as well. Of the 31% of Americans that strongly oppose allowing transgender girls to participate in K-12 sports, nearly 60% identify with or lean toward the Republican Party and just 15% are Democrats. On the other end of the issue, of the 13% of Americans who strongly favor allowing participation, over 60% identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party and just 23% are Republicans. A similar partisan pattern emerges on support for laws that prohibit transition-related medical care for children, even with parental consent.

Notes: Data from a national, demographically representative survey of 1.493 adults fielded August 3-29, 2022.

Challenging Anti-Trans Legislation

Our study concludes that Americans’ attitudes on transgender rights are quite variable across issues areas. Rather than monolithic and stable, public opinion on these important policies seems dependent on context and framing. As public opinion continues to evolve in this area, much will depend on the behavior and framing offered by elites. The current spate of anti-transgender legislation better reflects elite positions rather than public opinion. With Republican elites pushing state laws to restrict transition related care for transgender youth and bar transgender girls from athletics, public opinion may polarize along party lines. The body-centric framing of these policies seems to encourage public opposition to transgender people.  However, as seen in policies that are more clearly understood in terms of civil rights, like nondiscrimination and military service policies, Americans public opinion has the potential to be more supportive when the issue is framed around equity.

Further, legislative efforts to restrict the rights of transgender people ensures that the issue will remain salient for years to come as transgender advocates challenge these laws in court and continue to debate them in state capitols, providing platforms to demonstrate the impact of these policies to the public. In line with research on the positive effects of interpersonal contact and positive media portrayals, individual experiences may ultimately increase support for transgender people, So, despite short term losses in the policy arena, the long term impact of restrictive policies may be to increase support for transgender rights by increasing familiarity with transgender people and awareness of the impact of government policies regulating their lives.